China will buy $14 billion of U.S. ag products in 2020, $3.9 billion more than last year, USDA Chief Economist Rob Johansson said last week at the USDA’s Agricultural Outlook Forum. The estimate was based on the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which did not include potential increases from the Phase 1 agreement with China.

The USDA updated its estimate of all ag exports to $139.5 billion this fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. That’s a $500 million increase from...