The USDA released its updated WASDE report on December 10, 2024. 

US corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks remain unchanged for the 2023/2024 marketing year. US corn ending stocks for the 2024/2025 marketing year underperformed compared to trade expectations by more than 160 million bushels. Soybean ending stocks for the 2024/2025 remain unchanged from November at 470 million bushels. Wheat ending stocks decreased by 20 million bushels to 795 mil/bu, which falls short of trade expectations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

World ending stocks for the 2024/2025 marketing year for corn, soybean and wheat all slightly decreased from November.

Table 1 shows some key report estimates along with trade analyst expectations. 

Table 1. November 2024 USDA WASDE vs Market Expectations

 

US corn and soybean production and yield per acre remain unchanged for the 2024/2025 marketing year. US wheat production across all classes remains constant. 

World corn ending stocks increased by 3.57 MMT and world wheat ending stocks increased by more than 1.20 MMT for the 2023/2024 marketing year. World soybean ending stocks decreased slightly by 0.26 MMT in December for the 2023/2024 marketing year. World corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks decreased by 2.38, 2.91, and 0.15 MMT respectfully for the 2024/2025 marketing year. 

The USDA’s Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production estimates remain unchanged from October to November. 

Initial Market Reaction

The immediate market reaction to the USDA reports saw corn prices quickly increase by 4 cents to $4.38. Corn prices continued to increase before closing at $4.40 for the day. The March corn futures price increased by 4 cents immediately and continued that trend before closing at $4.48. Soybean prices dropped by 5 cents within minutes of the WASDE release, before recovering and closing at $9.95. The March soybean futures price initially decreased by 5 cents. Wheat prices increased and decreased multiple times within the first 30 minutes of the WASDE’s release, peaking at $5.62. The March wheat futures price initially increased by 3 cents. Soybean meal prices decreased by $1 per ton initially before closing at $289. Soybean oil decreased by less than 1 cent per pound. 

Changes to Domestic Balance Sheets

For corn, there were no changes in the 2023/2024 balance sheet. For the 2024/2025 marketing year balance sheet, area planted, harvested, and yield per acre stayed constant. Final estimates of 2024 corn yields and production will be forthcoming in the January 2025 Crop production report. Beginning stocks, production, and imports stayed constant, leading to total supply being 16,928 mil/bu. On the demand side of the balance sheet, food, seed, and industrial use which includes ethanol increased by 50 million bushels. Thus, total domestic use increased by 50 million bushels. Exports increased by 150 million bushels and total use increased by 200 million bushels. Corn ending stocks decreased by 200 million bushels from November to December. Expected average farm prices continue to remain unchanged for 2023/2024 and 2024/2025 at $4.55 and $4.10 respectively.

Table 2. December 2024 WASDE Corn Balance Sheet

   

 

For soybeans, there were no changes in the 2023/2024 balance sheet. The only change in the 2024/2025 balance sheet is a decrease in average farm price from $10.80 to $10.20. 

Table 3. December 2024 WASDE Soybean Balance Sheet