Introduction

The USDA released its updated WASDE report on February 11, 2025. 

US corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks remain unchanged for the 2023/2024 marketing year. Corn, soybean, and wheat production and yield estimates also stayed constant from January to February for the 2024/2025 marketing year. US wheat ending stocks decreased by 4 million bushels (mb) to 794 mb while US corn and soybeans ending stocks remained unchanged. In the 2023/2024 marketing year, world corn ending stocks decreased by 1.65 million metric tons (MMT), but world soybean and wheat ending stocks slightly increased by 0.11 MMT and 0.2 MMT respectively.  World corn ending stocks for the 2024/2025 marketing year stayed constant, but soybean and wheat ending stocks decreased by 3.50 MMT and 1.26 MMT respectively from the January WASDE. 

Table 1 shows some key report estimates along with trade analyst expectations. 

Table 1. February 2025 USDA WASDE vs Market Expectations

US corn, soybean, and wheat ending stocks fell short of expectations by 14, 6, and 5 mb respectively for the 2024/2025 marketing year. The USDA estimates US corn production to be 14,867 mb, falling 228 mb short of trade analyst expectations. US corn yield estimated fell just over 3 bu/ac short of expectations. The USDA estimates US soybean production at 4,366 mb estimate, falling 87 mb shy of trade analyst expectations. 

The USDA’s Brazil production corn production estimates decreased by 1 MMT to 126 MMT and soybean production estimates remain unchanged in the February WASDE. Argentina corn and soybean production estimates decreased by 1 MMT and 3 MMT respectively. 

Initial Market Reaction

The immediate market reaction to the USDA reports saw corn prices quickly decrease by 7 cents per bushel to $4.89 and continue to decrease to $4.87 at this time. May and July corn futures also decreased by 7 cents per bushel to $5.02 and $5.05 respectively shortly after the February WASDE released. December 2025 corn futures are down 3 cents per bushel to $4.70. Soybean prices fell by 9 cents per bushel to $10.46 shortly after the February WASDE released. May and July 2025 soybean futures decreased by 9 cents per bushel to $10.62 and $10.78 respectively within minutes of the WASDE release. November 2025 soybean futures are down 7 cents per bushel to $10.56 after the WASDE released which is still 1 cent higher than the opening price. March soybean meal prices quickly dropped by $2/ton to $298/ton and continued to decrease throughout the day. Soybean oil initially decreased slightly to 46.08 cents per pound but is still 0.32 cents per pound higher than the opening price. Wheat prices initially decreased by 5 cents per bushel to $5.81. Wheat prices continued to decrease, dropping to $5.77 at 1:00 pm CST. May and July wheat futures both decreased by 5 cents per bushel to $5.93 and $6.05 respectively. May wheat futures continued to drop, reaching a low of $5.90 at 1:00 pm CST. July wheat futures also continued to decrease to $6.01 at 1:00 pm CST.  

Changes to Domestic Balance Sheets

For corn, there was no change in the 2023/2024 balance sheet. The only change in the 2024/2025 balance sheet is expected average farm price increasing from $4.25 to $4.35 in the February WASDE. 

Table 2. February 2025 WASDE Corn Balance Sheet

For soybeans, there were no changes in the 2023/2024 balance sheet. The only change in the 2024/2025 balance sheet is expected average farm price decreasing from $10.20 to $10.10 in the February WASDE. 

Table 3. February 2025 WASDE Soybean Balance Sheet