The Brazilian soybean harvest for the year has concluded, but we are still seeing crop estimate revisions. The latest came from the Brazilian soy crushing group ABIOVE, which is estimating Brazil’s soybean crop at 156 million metric tons this year and forecasting exports of 97 million metric tons. If correct, this export volume would be up 23.2% from last year’s 78.7 million metric tons. 

Brazil’s June exports are expected to total 14.2 million metric tons. To say the U.S. soybean export program is facing an uphill battle is an understatement.

Not only will the U.S. soy complex see additional pressure from Brazil next year, but possibly Canada as well. Canada has produced a much larger canola crop than it did a year ago, and crush is increasing. In its latest data, Canada reported May crush being...