A factor that we continue to keep a close eye on is the share of the global commodity trade that is covered by the United States. This has been shrinking for several years, especially on soybeans. 

It is no secret that South America has taken away a large portion of the global soybean trade that was once held by the United States, and this will likely continue as larger crops are produced in those countries. 

Ukraine is also taking a share of world trade away from the United States in the corn market. These changes to the world balance sheets are becoming more of a factor in price discovery. 

According to the latest data from the USDA, world soybean production will increase 22.6 million metric tons in the 2021-22 marketing year. One-third of this is set to come from the United States, but another 8 million metric tons is expected to come from Brazil and 5 million metric tons from Argentina. 

A return to normal weather and expanded...