Spring has arrived in the heart of the Corn Belt. Tillage equipment, sprayers, spreaders and planters are being pulled out of their winter resting places as preparations are made for another year. For grain traders and market participants, this time of year also means the arrival of the March quarterly stocks and spring planting intentions reports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has a propensity of late to drop some “Oh, whoops!” numbers on the stocks side, while everyone is anxious for the first survey-based look at what producers' planting intentions are for the upcoming year.

If you remember back to 2018, 2019 and 2020, you likely know what I mean when I say “Oh, whoops!” numbers. In both 2018 and 2019, the "Oh, whoops!" was a “Sorry, we underestimated last year’s crop by 200-plus...