March is typically South American crop watching season, and 2024 is no different. While warmer than usual weather has some U.S. producers more focused on planting operations this spring, traders and markets are still squarely focused on the Southern Hemisphere. Recently, both the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and CONAB, Brazil's crop forecasting agency, gave their monthly supply and demand updates for March. While the numbers were mostly as expected and didn't offer much fanfare, it was the difference between the numbers from the two agencies that caught the attention of traders and has continued to be discussed.

There currently exists a nearly 11 million metric ton difference in production estimates for corn between the two groups, and there exists a nearly 8 million metric ton difference in soybean production estimates. By historical standards, these are massive gaps. Last year’s...