August 2022 Crop Production and WASDE Updates

August 2022 Crop Production and WASDE Updates 

The USDA published the August 2022 Crop Production report and WASDE report on Friday, August 12, 2022.   

Corn 

U.S. corn production is forecast at 14.4 billion bushels, down 5 percent from 2021.  The decrease in total production is due to decreases in both total acres and yield.  Corn acres harvested is forecast at 81.8 million acres, down 4% from last year.  U.S. corn yields are expected to average 175.4 per harvested acre, down 1.6 bushels from last year and below the 20-year yield trendline (Figure 1).   

Iowa corn production is estimated at 2.5 billion bushels, down 1.6% from 2021.  The decrease in Iowa corn production is due to a reduction in total corn acres.  Iowa corn acres harvested are forecast at 12.3 million acres, down 1.6% from last year.  Somewhat surprisingly given Iowa weather this year, Iowa corn yields are currently projected to remain unchanged from the record set last year, at 205 bushels per acre.   

Across the country corn yields are forecast lower in the southern, southeast, and northeast region of the country, while states in the northcentral and far western parts of the country are expected to have higher yields than last year (Figure 2).   

Total U.S. corn use is estimated at 14.5 billion bushels, down 2.2% from last year.  A slight increase of 30 million bushels (0.4%) in corn used for food, seed, and industrial purposes and ethanol is more than offset by a 275 million bushel (4.9%) decrease in corn used for feed and residual and a 75 million bushel (3.1%) decrease in exports.   

The average U.S. farm price received for corn in the 2022/23 growing season is forecast for $6.65 per bushel, up $0.70 from $5.95 per bushel last year.   

Table 1. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 

Figure 1. U.S. Corn Yield 

Figure 2. August 2022 Corn Yield, Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year 

Soybeans 

U.S. soybean production is forecast at 4.5 billion bushels, up 2.2% from last year due to increases in both total acres and yield.  Acres harvested for beans are forecast at 87.2 million acres, 1% higher than last year.  U.S. soybean yields are forecast at 51.9 bushels per acre, up 0.5 bushels per acre from 2021 and above the 20-year trendline (Figure 3).   

Iowa soybean production is forecast at 592 million bushels, down 4.7% from last year.  The decrease is due to a reduction in Iowa yield, as increases in acres were not enough to offset the decrease in yield from the record Iowa yield of 62 bushels per acre set last year.  Iowa soybean yields are forecast at 58 bushels per acre, down 4 bushels per acre last year.  Total acres expected to be harvested is forecast at 10.2 million acres, 1.9% from last year.  

Across the country, state soybean yield forecasts are mixed.  Despite a slight increase in yields for the U.S., many states including Nebraska, Wisconsin, and states in the South and Southeast east are expected to have lower yields.  But this is offset by increases in yields in other states including Illinois, Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota (Figure 2). 

Total US soybean use is estimated at 4.5 billion bushels, up 1.0% from last year.  The primary contributor is an increase of 40 million bushels for soybean crush compared to 2021.  

The average farm price received for soybeans in the 2022/23 season is forecast at 14.35 per bushel, up $1.05 from $13.30 per bushel last year.   

Table 2. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 

Figure 3. U.S. Soybean Yield. 

Figure 4. August 2022 Soybean Yield, Bushels and Percent Change from Previous Year 

Economic analysis provided by David Miller, Consulting Chief Economist, Decision Innovation Solutions on behalf of Iowa Farm Bureau.