USDA’s WASDE report published on May 10, 2016 showed the first projections for the 2016/17 soybean marketing year. U.S. soybean production for the upcoming year is projected at 3.8 billion bushels, down 3.3% (129 million bushels) from the previous marketing year (3.929 billion bushels) (see Figure 1). Projected soybean planted area (82.2 million acres) is down 0.5 million acres from the 2015/16 estimate. This projection is based on the Prospective Plantings report published by USDA on March 31, 2016.

The 2016/17 soybean production forecast was based on a projected reduction in harvested area and yield. 2016/17 harvested area is projected at 81.4 million acres compared with 81.8 million acres, the estimate for 2015/16. U.S. soybean yield is projected down 1.3 bushel per acre to 46.7 bushels per acre from the actual marketing year (48 bushels per acre).  USDA projected harvested acres are based on the five-year harvested-to-planted ratio, while projected yield is based on a weather-adjusted trend model.  Normal summer weather conditions are assumed in this projection.

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